A super El Niño is forming, conflict is pushing up fertiliser and fuel costs, debt service is crowding out social spending, and aid budgets are shrinking — converging on the same communities at once. This coalition turns forecasts into pre-agreed, pre-financed early action across Sub-Saharan Africa and the IGAD region.
Each country is scored on three layers built from actual monthly data. Where pressure and harm outstrip the systems meant to absorb them, the preparedness gap — and the case for early action — is greatest.
Conflict, climate anomalies, food-price inflation and aid decline — the forces bearing down on a country.
Food insecurity already realised on the ground (IPC Phase 3+ and 4+ populations).
Governance and social-protection systems that determine whether a shock is absorbed or turns into crisis.
High pressure and harm against weak capacity produce a wide preparedness gap — and a high early-action priority.
Every pillar is normalised to a 0–100 score using fixed anchors, so countries are comparable. Pressure and harm are combined and weighed against capacity to give each country a preparedness gap, and then an Early Action Priority. Scores read on a common scale: 80–100 extreme, 60–79 severe, 40–59 serious, 20–39 stressed, 0–19 minimal.
We know where risks are increasing and which countries are most exposed.
Many organisations are already acting, but efforts remain fragmented.
The missing link is connecting forecasts, financing and delivery systems.
Filter by region, country or risk category to explore the live picture, country by country.
Latest El Niño updates for the coalition's countries, pulled from the authoritative sources. Headlines and short extracts only — select any item to read the full bulletin at its publisher.
Who is part of the Coalition, where they work, and what they can contribute.
Click any country to list every Coalition partner working there. Shading shows where partner presence is concentrated.
Each workstream carries outputs to deliver by end-2026 and a 90-day action set; leads are being confirmed.
Crisis confirmed foreseeable; coordination named as the central gap.
Coalition aims, workstreams, leads, and the next 30-day deliverables.
Each workstream confirms leads and its first concrete outputs.
Plus the support each needs from the wider coalition.
Pre-agreed, pre-financed action operating in priority countries.
Contribute capability, finance or political support — or help reach the actors still missing from the table.
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